FCS Week 1 Game of the Week - Youngstown State Penguins at Villanova Wildcats: How to Watch, Preview, Predictions (2024)

Date: Thursday, August 29, 2024

Time: 6:00 PM (ET)

TV: FloFootball

The Quick Hits

It’ll be a rematch of last year’s second round playoff game when Youngstown State (0-0) makes a swing through the City of Brotherly Love on Thursday night to take on Villanova (0-0) to start their season. The #25 Penguins are looking to avenge last year’s season-ending loss to these very same Wildcats in the very same place. YSU, however, is down a quarterback from that postseason meeting but should still field a strong offense.

‘Nova, meanwhile, will kick off its 2024 season as a Top 10 FCS program, checking in at #6 nationally according to the STATS poll. A lot of familiar faces have hung around from last year’s conference championship caliber team and the ‘Cats are again expected to be frontrunners in the CAA race this year. Expectations are high among fans and even higher internally for what shapes up to be a successful campaign. Will the Wildcats live up to the hype?

The Coaches

Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Mark Ferrante has been running the show in Philadelphia for eight years now and he’s had the Wildcats playing some of their best ball as of late. Twice has Ferrante guided his team to a 10-win season (2021 and 2023) and claimed a portion of the CAA crown in each of those two years. Since being named the head man back in 2017, Ferrante has won 47 games and has taken Villanova to the playoffs three times, reaching the quarterfinals twice.

On the visitor’s sideline it will be fifth-year head coach Doug Phillips calling the plays. Phillips is on the heels of two straight winning seasons with the Penguins but has yet to capture the incredibly difficult-to-come-by MVFC title. He has, however, led YSU to a pair of third place finishes in the conference and has steadily increased his wins in each of his first four seasons. Now Phillips is looking to coach the program to back-to-back playoff trips for the first time since 1999 and 2000.

Villanova Offense vs Youngstown State Defense

The ‘Nova offense will go as far as senior quarterback Connor Watkins can take them. Now in his third season as the full time starter and sixth overall with the Wildcats, Watkins is as experienced as they come. He’s thrown for 4,937 yards and 37 touchdowns on his collegiate career and is coming off a 2023 run that saw him hit several career highs including average passing yards per game (206.2), passing yards (2,681) and total touchdowns (30). Watkins is the catalyst on offense and will need to be the main point of focus for the YSU defense.

That defense lost a ton of its talent from last year. In fact, the top nine tacklers from a season ago are all gone now and DB Jaylen Castleberry, who had 26 takedowns, is the top returner in that category. The Penguins will need production from somewhere and they are hoping that somewhere is from the influx of transfers they brought in. Some notables include former Marshall defensive lineman Jabarrek Hopkins, ex-Penn State DB Jace Tutty and former Southern Miss DB Jeremiah Robinson.

The new look unit will be contending with a ‘Nova rushing attack that lost its top performer, Jalen Jackson, to the NFL. Now guys like Isaiah Ragland will need to take the torch as the team did not bring in any new backs via the portal. Ragland ran for 161 yards on 24 carries last year.

Where the Wildcats did utilize the portal, though, was on the outside and they did it well. Former North Carolina Central standout Devin Smith, who helped the team to a Celebration Bowl win in 2022, is now with Villanova and will help the offense greatly. Smith led the Eagles with 707 receiving yards last year. He joins a unit that just lost its top pass-catcher in Rayjoun Pringle.

Smith might prove to be a tall order for YSU’s secondary but the aforementioned Castleberry did lead the team with PBUs (seven) in 2023. His presence on the back end will be vital as nearly every other major player in that department left.

Getting to Watkins will be the name of the game for the D line and that job will fall largely on edge rusher Dawan Martin. Martin is one of the few returners in the defensive trenches for Youngstown State and is fresh off a season in which he logged 3.5 sacks and seven QB hits. If he can’t apply pressure on Watkins it may be a long night for the defense as a whole.

Youngstown State Offense vs Villanova Defense

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Just line on their defense, the YSU offense took some hefty blows this offseason, the biggest being quarterback Mitch Davidson who entered the transfer portal late. While Davidson may not be back, though, the team’s leading rusher is. Tyshon King, who ran for over 1,000 yards last year, is now a senior and looks to be one of the FCS’ best tailbacks once more.

A big reason why Villanova was able to dominate in last year’s playoff game was due to their shutting down of King, who only managed 41 total yards in the meeting. Linebacker Shane Hartzel will look to replicate that formula. Hartzel finished last year with a team-high 91 stops and six for loss. Right behind him with 89 was fellow backer Brendan Bell who is also back. That might spell trouble for King over the middle as well as for singal-caller Beau Brungard.

Brungard, who served as Davidson’s backup as a redshirt freshman last year, has been listed as the starter. He appeared in all 13 games last year but only attempted 20 passes, none of which went for scores. Brungard will be baptized by fire against a lethal Wildcats secondary that features one of the best defensive backs in the nation.

Isas Waxter comes into this season with three interceptions and 17 defended passes on his career and the only reason his tackle numbers from last season (26 total) are low is because quarterbacks stopped throwing his way. Brungard would be wise to follow suit or things could end poorly.

Waxter will go up against receiver Max Tomczak. Tomczak caught 56 passes for 669 yards and touchdown last year. Tight end Brandan Serrano will also serve as a viable target for Brungard. In 2023 he hauled in 14 catches for 93 yards and a pair of scores.

The Special Teams

Where YSU may be lacking in some positions, one it will not be is at kicker. Sophom*ore Andrew Lastovka was one of the best in the country a season ago, nailing 17-of-20 field goal attempts and 44-of-46 PATS. Lastovka was clutch when he needed to be, hitting a 43-yard game winner as time expired to lift the Penguins to a victory over Illinois State. His career long of 50 yards came in the playoffs against Duquesne. If Youngstown State finds itself needing to kick, they should be just fine.

Brendon Kilpatrick will serve as Youngstown State’s punter. He averaged 43.4 yards per kick last year with a season best going 58 yards. Kilpatrick did not have a punt blocked and landed 16 inside the 20-yard line.

Villanova will lean on former Bryant kicker Ethan Gettman. Gettman was terrific for the Bulldogs, connecting on 23 career field goals with a long of 45 yards. He was also the recipient of the Fred Mitchell Most Outstanding Placekicker Award, an accolade given to the top kicker in the FCS, DII, DIII, NAIA and NJCAA. Gettman will likely also serve as the team’s primary punter as he did at Bryant.

Prediction

As they were in last year’s playoffs, YSU will simply be outmatched against Villanova on the road and now without Davidson. In a game that will be close early on, King will score a touchdown in the first half that will have the Penguins up at the break. From there, though, Watkins and company will take over and impose their will in the final 30 minutes. An early fourth-quarter score followed by a big play on defense will ice the game for the Wildcats and Ferrante’s team will start the season 1-0.

Score Prediction: Youngstown State: 21 - Villanova: 35